Will Driverless Vehicles Mean the Decline of Railways

[cascaderailroad]

What I mean is: If You replace all the Taxi Cab and UBER jobs with robotic, unmanned cars ... and replace all the store delivery trucks with robot drivers ... and replace all the factory workers with robots ... and pick all the vegetables and fruits in the fields with robots ... and replace all the cashiers in the stores with self checkout scanners, ... etc ... etc ... etc ... Where are people going to go to work, when robots do all the work ?

Driverless cars, and robots, will eliminate jobs for people ... men women & children will be out of work with no money, to buy food, and pay rent.

The whole driverless car program is a silly nonsensical "pipe dream"

 

[narrowgauge]

I don't normally agree with Cascade, but, while this is bordering on political comment, I believe he is right. We have a world with more and more people together with a lessening number of jobs for semi-skilled workers.

Peter

 

[pware]

There has been some serious thought given to the possibility of a world where few people work and robots perform almost everything. It would require a very different economic system - for example everyone would receive a basic living wage for life which would allow them the freedom to pursue their own interests. Those who have special skills and who want to work for additional pay can do so. The economy would still be dependent on industrial output, retail and services etc but they would mostly be automated.

 

[cascaderailroad]

So we would become a society of humans, servicing machine robots, draftsmen designing the plans for the robots, and a few CNC programmers, machine shop set up, and maintenance personnel, in a robot assembly plant, overseeing the robotic assembly, of more robots, by robots.

Sounds like the Terminator-"Rise of the Machines" science-fiction movie

And a huge demand for trillions of solar cell panel arrays, and trillions of hugely heavy lithium ion batteries ... these items are not cheap to manufacturer, nor are the raw materials ever present, and never ending ... some of these raw rare materials come from Africa, and are rare elements, that are already in short supply, and they have a limited mining source, meaning the raw materials will run out quickly ... and broken, and depleted solar panels and leaking batteries, are not easily recycled, and can not be simply re-manufactured into new solar panels and new batteries ... meaning there will be a huge waste dump of solar panels and batteries ... requiring trillions of gallons of water, and huge amounts of electricity, gas, diesel, oil, coal, is needed to manufacture these high tech items ... meaning more waste water, and air pollution.

These items are not simply manufactured out of recycled melted plastic water bottle pellets, aluminum beer cans, plastic grocery bags, and rotten banana peels, in a BTTF Atomic Flux Capacitor "Mr Fusion" Recycler ... Some of your cell phone batteries, and cell phones come from rare materials mined in African countries like Madagascar ... and these raw mined materials will soon run out of supply !

So the "pipe dream" of eliminating human jobs ... by manufacturing robots, to do the eliminated humans jobs ... has it's huge monetary costs and severe detrimental effects on our Earth's environment

Howard Hughs, Lockheed Martin, Boeing ... etc ... etc ... spent trillions of dollars on designing non-functioning military aircraft, most of which never saw anything more than a balsa wood prototype, and thousands of their aircraft never saw flight, much less an aircraft manufacturing assembly line !

When I was a child I had a dream, that the world was full of little robotic self driven delivery carts (like the "Chicago Tunnel Company"), about the size of a VW Beetle ... But I now realize, that that was just a ridiculous ludicrous "Pipe Dream" ... so I gave up smoking dope

 

[JCitron]

I don't think the driverless car will ever replace a train anymore than a driver-controlled car does now. If we think about it, there are first of all only a certain number of vehicles that any road system can handle to allow for adequate travel speed while maintaining proper safe vehicle stopping distances. Given the large number of vehicles on the roads today, we are already at the maximum they can handle in many of the heavily populated areas.

John

 

[amigacooke]

I think the theory runs that computer controlled cars will be able to react faster and more efficiently than human drivers, therefore safe stopping distances can be cut.

As to not adopting technology that gives a business advantage, companies just won't be able to afford not to if the technology proves to be successful.

Computers and Internet connectivity did away with millions of administrative jobs, but are we all going to toss away our computers, tablets, phones and online connectivity to get them back?

 

[wholbr]

Hi everybody.
Along with what amigacooke stated at #46 of this thread, it has to be acknowledged that driverless vehicles could inevitably change the way that we look at travel and how we go about it. By example, If you take the case of someone travelling from the West of England to London for a business meeting at 10 am on a morning, then that person would in all probability at present take an early morning train to the capital on the day of the meeting. The reason for that decision would be that very few people would wish to travel by road to London after a long days work, especially the M4 motorway on one of Britain's wet and dark winters evenings.

In the above, the cost of taking a train to London on an evening plus staying in a hotel in the centre of that city would be prohibitive to all but the most wealthiest of companies, hence the very early morning start that so many of us have become use to over so many years.

However, with a self driving car the road trip to London on a winters evening would look far more attractive. At the end of the days work you would program the car to take you to London and then be able to relax while the car takes the strain. The cost of the hotel would be covered by the saving made on not taking the train and the person involved in the meeting would have the advantage of being fresh and relaxed for his business following a good nights sleep and avoiding the very early morning start.

The above scenario could be repeated on any number of journeys and in any part of the UK. Therefore the railways I feel should have every reason to be concerned that driverless technology could very much affect their passenger base as people look at travel challenges in a different manner.

Bill

 

[amigacooke]

However, with a self driving car the road trip to London on a winters evening would look far more attractive. At the end of the days work you would program the car to take you to London and then be able to relax while the car takes the strain. The cost of the hotel would be covered by the saving made on not taking the train and the person involved in the meeting would have the advantage of being fresh and relaxed for his business following a good nights sleep and avoiding the very early morning start.

However, there would be a cost incurred by the vehicle and presumably the price of hotels would go up as there would be a higher demand.

As an aside, would users of self driving cars try to avoid parking charges by sending them on spurious journeys?

 

[johnwhelan]

It sounds to me as if the problem is more of one of capacity than anything else. If the UK changed its loading gauge to allow double stacked containers and bi-level cocahing stock and dropped in a decent signalling system that would improve things no end. Tunnels yes they're a limiting factor but new ones can be bored. Money is available for HS2 but smaller projects could add more capacity quicker and cheaper.

On the roads road trains make better use of the exisitng drivers over long distances and in use in many parts of the world. Cheaper and more reliable than self driving trucks.

Unfortunately automation us creeping up on us that and the use of volenteer labour, think of all the model makers thrown out of work by hobbyists creating their own models then sharing them in Trainz.

Cheerio John

 

[cascaderailroad]

Why not just employ a human being, and give a man a job, and ride in a manned taxi cab ?

The ridiculous idea of a driverless "Johnny Cab" is dead ... even before it gets off the ground

https://www.google.com/search?q=johnney+cab&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

 

[amigacooke]

An interesting article from the UK national newspaper the Guardian:

Self-driving cars: who's building them and how do they work?

 

[wholbr]

Hi everybody.
As opening poster can I say many thanks to amigacooke for his link to the article on autonomous vehicles from one of Britain’s most respected newspapers the Guardian. The article makes extremely interesting reading and confirms much of what has been posted by various forum members in this thread. As the article states much of the technology needed to make fully autonomous vehicles a reality on the roads of the world is already in existence and working on various models of cars and commercial vehicles currently in production.

The article also confirms the statement the Westminster government Transport Secretary made to the House of Commons and the Transport Select Committee. In that statement (s) Claire Preddy advised that with such systems as “collision avoidance, Lane control, self-parking and auto speed control” already encompassed on many production cars, all that was now needed was a software system to bring all the above together to make a fully driverless vehicle. The Guardian article timeframe of between 2020 and 2030 for fully autonomous vehicles to be available for purchase would fit alongside the statements that many of the leading manufacturers have given also as a timeframe.

So, as the opening poster in this thread I hope that all who read this topic can now accept that the technology is already with us and will be increasingly seen on the streets of our cities and towns over the coming decade. However, how will that affect the railways especially here in the UK where there has been ever-growing demand over the last 30 years or more for its passenger services.

I did suggest in any earlier posting in this thread that driverless vehicles will allow their owners/users to travel to destinations in the evening avoiding early-morning use of the train. Amigacooke, responded in his posting at #48 of this thread by suggesting that could well drive up the cost of hotels in city centres etc which I believe may well prove perfectly correct. However, it would also mean increased employment in the hotel industry which may well nullify the reduction in employment by the railways perhaps creating a balance on employment between the two.

As an aside, would users of self driving cars try to avoid parking charges by sending them on spurious journeys?

Amigacooke, with the cost of parking a car in many UK city centres these days especially London I believe your above posting may well prove to be true. It could well be far cheaper to send your autonomous car on a spurious journey rather have it parked all day costing its owner arm and a leg. After all, with the traffic congestion we have around London, if you sent your driverless car out on the M25 motorway on any weekday morning to take in Watford down to the M4 interchange it probably would not come back for the rest of the day.

In regard to John Whelan’s posting at #49 of this thread, then I feel you hit the nail right on the head John in stating that Britain’s rail problems are overall in regard to capacity. In my experience of travelling extensively on the UK railways for the last 30 years the capacity problems began to manifest themselves in around 2000 and action should have been taken at that time.

However, Network Rail or its predecessor Railtrack did not address those problems as they first came to light and have watched them develop into the near crisis proportions seen as of today. Instead of addressing that issue we have seen brought forward such “hairy fairy” projects as high-speed two (HS2) and the electrification of the great Western main line now running four years late and billions over budget.

It is very true to say that when anyone speaks of Network Rail or the train operating companies in the presence of regular rail users, then it always brings back highly detrimental comments filled with many obscenities to the conversation. Therefore I feel it is without doubt that driverless cars will have a very detrimental effect on passenger numbers if the present situation in regards to overcrowding is allowed to continue.

However, the above need not happen to any great extent if Network Rail and the train operating companies up their efficiency and performance by concentrating solely on the core business of satisfaction within the regular passengers (customers) group to the exclusion of all else. It is the regular commuters who really pay for Britain’s railways, and if they find alternative means of transport and drift away, we could well have another Doctor Beeching wielding his axe within a very few short years of that happening.

Bill

 

[amigacooke]

The fertility of the human imagination.

 

[wholbr]

Hi everybody.

The fertility of the human imagination.

Not a bad idea amigacooke, but if it was left to Network Rail to build it here in the UK, it would take them the next fifty years to get it the first train running and nearly every one after that would be overcrowded and arrive late. :hehe:

Quicker to use one of the cars.
Bill

 

[rjhowie]

All very sophisticated but to be honest not as practical as might be perceived. Our cities do not intend to be in square grids and plenty of sharp bends and so on. A vehicle like that would in hard practice be a very, very limited thing. Trams are far more practical and my favourite!

 

[amigacooke]

It runs on rails above the road. What is the difference between this system and a tram?

 

[Matt3985]

Whilst we are on the subject it worries me how railroad crossing safety will be if self driving cars come to age for all country's.

 

[cascaderailroad]

You won't have to worry about all this driverless cars nonsence, when the whole "Pipe Dream" plan fails and is pulled off the road ... and manned taxi driver humans are instead given jobs ... by then we will have solar or electric cars driven by humans

Just because they invented the "Roomba" robot vacuum cleaner ... doesn't mean it won't drive off the 2nd story top staircase steps, crashing down to the 1st floor below

 

[wholbr]

Hi everybody.

Whilst we are on the subject it worries me how railroad crossing safety will be if self driving cars come to age for all country's.

Matt3985, I believe the technology to deal with driverless vehicles at railway crossings may already exist in another form. Traffic lights in Bristol and several other cities here in the UK I believe are fitted with a sensor which on the approach of an emergency vehicle changes the lights in favour of that vehicle.

It would probably be a simple step for driverless vehicles to be fitted with similar sensors which would be triggered by traffic lights or railway crossing signalling equipment to stop the driverless vehicle as it approaches. The foregoing could even make traffic signals and railway crossing safer as you would not have humans deliberately running the lights or crossings after the warnings had started.

On a separate mater and without wishing to take the thread off topic, it would seem that Google, Apple, Amazon along with many of the major car manufacturing companies are now involved heavily in the development of driverless vehicles. However, where is Microsoft in all this development as the company who throughout the 1980s, 90s and early years past the millennium led the world in computer technology.

Microsoft completely “missed the boat” at the start of mobile computer revolution, a mistake which has cost the company enormously in stature and revenue in recent years. Surely, they are not about to make the same mistake again with the development of this technology.

Having just “thrown their hand in” with the smart phone market by the sale of Nokia two weeks ago, questions are again being asked by investors where the future of the company is to be found. Therefore, Microsoft will have to demonstrate that they are still up there with the leaders in IT development by way of being at the forefront of automotive driverless vehicle technology. Anything other than the foregoing will most surely place yet again another very large question mark over the Microsoft future.

Perhaps there should be new thread on the above if forum members wish.

Bill

 

[amigacooke]

Oh those Chinese eh?

China's elevated bus