Speculation (Let's see if we can keep this civil)

B

Blutorse4792

Now T:ANE I can get into
Just for the fun of it, let's have a gentleman's wager. Which current Class I railroad do you think will be first to either go under and/or get swallowed up in a merger?

BNSF?
Canadian National?
Canadian Pacific?
CSX?
Kansas City Southern?
Norfolk Southern?
Union Pacific?

This has the potential to get heated, but I think we can keep it civil. Let's try to refrain from insulting somebody's favorite railroad or declaring which railroad you hate and think "deserves" it.

I just thought this could be an interesting discussion, especially down the line if/when somebody's prediction comes true.
 
Honestly, I don't think we will see any major mergers any time within the near future. Since the BNSF/CN merger failure in 2000-2001ish the Surface Transport Board pretty much said that any merger would have to prove that it would not only not decrease competition, but increase it. I remember reading, however, that the KCS is treated different by the STB due to its smaller size, both in revenue and geographic coverage. Furthermore there really isn't any incentive for any new mergers. Class Is are doing pretty well right now and any merger would bring about a whole new set of headaches, union contract renegotiating just as a starter, that wouldn't justify changing the status quo.

So realistically, I think that it would be one of the Canadian or US East Coast Class Is merging with the KCS, but even that is pretty speculative at this point. The STB isn't going to allow the formation of some super transcontinental BNSF/NS or UP/CSX Class I anytime soon.
 
Of the ones you listed, I would expect KCS to be the next one to be absorbed in a merger. Likely with Norfolk Southern since they already interchange in a large number of places.
 
Speaking as a complete outsider who knows nothing of railroads, I am wondering why Canada has 2 railroads and if they would be candidates for a merger.

Do CP and CN compete or do they service different markets? If they serve different markets, a merger might be beneficial in reducing duplicate admin functions while not changing the amount of competition.
 
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CN and CP are direct competitors with each other. They all serve the same markets in Canada (potash, intermodal, coal etc...). CN is by far a larger railroad than CP and its system covers just about every province in Canada and also has a large system in the US. CP doesn't go any further East than Quebec thus making it a non transcontinental railroad. I don't think CN and CP will merge as the Canadian government wont allow it. But nowadays anything possible.

Around here CN and CP are pretty independent from one another, as their railroad tracks are spread apart linking to customers who have no choice but to use CN or CP. The only places they really compete is in major cities where they have major intermodal hubs and ports.
 
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Blutorse4792 said:
Just for the fun of it, let's have a gentleman's wager. Which current Class I railroad do you think will be first to either go under and/or get swallowed up in a merger?

BNSF?
Canadian National?
Canadian Pacific?
CSX?
Kansas City Southern?
Norfolk Southern?
Union Pacific?

This has the potential to get heated, but I think we can keep it civil. Let's try to refrain from insulting somebody's favorite railroad or declaring which railroad you hate and think "deserves" it.

I just thought this could be an interesting discussion, especially down the line if/when somebody's prediction comes true.
Click to expand...
I would call UP the favorite, and KCS the underdog, but honestly, I cannot see the FRA/ICC/STB/whoever sanctioning any true coast-to-coast rail line here in America. If the Canadians went ahead, there isn't much that the US could do except order certain divestitures of track where CN/CP connect. And once again, any mergers would have to promote competition. Maybe if a few shortlines got together and cobbled up a longer, winding route, then that would have a chance of kicking off a merger fever/branchline buyback, IMO, this is more or less carved in stone for at least 20-40 years. If for some reason something happens, and if any of you remember this thread, please feel free to kick my butt.
 
I think that maybe it won't be merged into something, but Canadian Pacific will go under soon. There was an article in Trains magazine a couple years ago that had many points about why it would, and I agree with those.
 
If CN and CP merged, I would call them Pacific National. If NS and CSX merged, I would call the Norfolk Transpotation. If UP and BNSF merged, I would call the Bulington Pacific. If Kansas City Southern merged with UP, I would call them Kansas Pacific. Those are just my Ideas.

Daylightrain
 
I don't see any big railroad mergers any time soon due to the reasons mentioned, however, it would be awesome if Pan Am Railways got absorbed into NS. Their overall infrastructure would see quite an improvement then what we have up here now. NS invested heavily in the West End with their partnership with PAR, and it would be nice to see this go all the way over the remaining system. The subsidiary route with PAR is known as the PAS or Pan Am Southern.

John
 
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