Hurricane Sandy

I was moving our kayaks closer to the house and farther away from the salt marsh this morning. While tying them to a tree I nearly scared myself to death thinking the rope was a snake. I nearly became the first Canadian victim of Sandy! Too much coffee this morning.

Cheers, Rick
 
I wish you well, and I am paying close attention as I still have family in NJ. I also hope the storm doesn't destroy all the dunes down at the shore, they are quite fragile.
 
Here are some of the tools (or a tiny subset of them anyway) that are used by our friendly weather people on TV. There are many different models used for predicting the weather. They range from accurate to more speculative. I've listed the two speculative ones first and then a more accurate one which doesn't predict as far out as the less accurate ones. Remember too the further you go out on the limb, the less accurate things are, but so far these to so-called less accurate models have been pretty good so far for this storm.

Here is the current trajectory according to the GFS

Mid-level Winds
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&loop=loopall&hours=

Precipitation
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_prcp&loop=loopall&hours=


Here it is according to the NAM

Winds
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_mslp&loop=loopall&hours=

Precipitation
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_prcp&loop=loopall&hours=

The RAP shows something completely different, although it is considered more accurate.

Winds
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=ruc_sfc_wind&loop=loopall&hours=

Precipitation
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=ruc_sfc_prcp&loop=loopall&hours=

And finally one from the SPC
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php


What's protecting New England, and sadly sending the storm across New Jersey and into Pennsylvania, is a pair of big high pressure bubbles just to the northwest. These are coming out of the Great Lakes and heading into New England.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/progs/index.php?prog=00

Please, oh please heed the warnings from NOAA and state emergency personnel. This is still a potentially dangerous storm (PDS) for those people along low lying coastal areas and the in the area affected by the storm.

John
 
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker/2012/sandy

Sand dunes, I was at NAS Lakehurst in the summer of 78, used to go fishing in Barnegat Bay near those dunes on that long strip of dunes south of Seaside Heights. Didn't see the actual hurricane since we were riding it out aboard the USS Independence when it hit NJ, but that winter there were huge gaps in the isthmus in several places, you could no longer walk all the way down to the southern point. They refilled themselves within a year, best I recall, 79 or 80 I think.
 
I hate to pop your bubbles of happiness folks but if the power goes off you will not be spending days and days Trainzing to your hearts content - instead you will be sitting in the dark bored out of your gourd, lol. After Wilma some folks went without power for close to 30 days. There were miles of iigh tension power towers down not to mention 100's if not 1000's of residential power poles also down. No matter how good your local power companys repair crrews are there is a finite amount of what they can do in a given time frame.

Id also suggest you forget filling the coolers with brewskis. Even a category 1 hurricane can kill you. Being blotto just helps it do so. No - I'm not a teetotaller - just someone who has been thru too darn many hurricanes and knows better.

Ben
 
bendorsey said:
I hate to pop your bubbles of happiness folks but if the power goes off you will not be spending days and days Trainzing to your hearts content - instead you will be sitting in the dark bored out of your gourd, lol. After Wilma some folks went without power for close to 30 days. There were miles of iigh tension power towers down not to mention 100's if not 1000's of residential power poles also down. No matter how good your local power companys repair crrews are there is a finite amount of what they can do in a given time frame.

Id also suggest you forget filling the coolers with brewskis. Even a category 1 hurricane can kill you. Being blotto just helps it do so. No - I'm not a teetotaller - just someone who has been thru too darn many hurricanes and knows better.

Ben
Click to expand...

I agree, Ben.

I still have a real piano so at least I can play by candlelight. :)

But seriously even 75mph winds can be deadly particularly if it puts tree branches and lose objects into motion.

John
 
stouthm said:
Those of us living on the East Coast, USA, are awaiting for a visit from Sandy. I hope all the experts are wrong but if not then we're all in for big trouble. We may be without power for many days and flooded out of our homes so if you don't hear from us for awhile you'll know why. This is an enormous storm that's going to affect millions of people who are not really use to this. I will continue to play Trainz until the last minute and will try to keep everyone informed. Now it's wait and see what happens.
Click to expand...

Nothing has happened yet But I'm downloading what I can I hear this storm has very fast winds
 
I have a baby grand in the living room but when I play the dog howls so loud I can't hear what I'm playing. Just doesn't appreciate a true artist I guess, lol.

75 MPH can easily take down older (and possibly weaker) trees or less then well installed power poles and if the ground gets saturated its even easier. It can also pick up debries and throw it thru windows. I don't imagine most folks up there have hurricane shutters so ya might want to stay away from the windows just in case.

Even a tropical storm can kill you under the right circumstances so stay inside, stay sober, and stay safe.

Ben
 
Ah, I'll need a generator to play my digital pipe organ. Prolly be cheaper to buy a piano to go with it. Hey, my 12 string is acoustic, I'm saved!
Seriously, tho, please be safe in all you do. I moved into Central New York from Mass, and the dang weather is following me. Tis OK, my weather station is always online :)
 
A kazoo is always good go, lol.

Seriously folks - too darn many people don't take a cat 1 storm seriously enough. As for something higher:

The worst place for a cat 4 or 5 hurricane in Florida is the Tampa Bay area. They haven't gotten much of anything in over 100 years and have a "it can't happen here" attitude. Well it can. I grew up there (St Petersburg) and the absolute worst scenario is a cat 4 or 5 storm making land fall just north of the mouth of tampa Bay. This causes the massive storm surge to go right into the bay and since I was there in high school they have built (literally) 100,000's of houses on land dredged up from the bay and bays betweeen the barrier islands all no more then 3 or 4 ft above mean high tide. All would be completely under water from the 20 to 30 ft storm surge. The loss of life and property would make Andrew seem like a joke. Authorities keep warning them but it keeps falling on deaf ears. Worse is it would be almost impossible to evacuate. The only interstate goes to Orlando. Thats better then nothing but only US 19 goes directly to the north. All in all a massive disaster waitng to happen.

Ben
 
My city which is Philadelphia closed schools for Monday, Tuesday, and now Wednesday. Were expecting about 6-10 inches of rain. But I heard NYC is getting catastrophic winds and etc. Hope everyone is ok :/
 
I look at all the computer models (RPM MODEL, Euro, GFS, and NAM) and I sum everything up and i post maps below on what I expect for New York and Philadelphia. I'm am amateur meteorologist at 15 years old.
 
I Live Near Wilkes-Barre Pennsylvania and they are projecting a potential total of 10" of rain and wind gust up to 80mph! I'm not required to be in work so the next few days appear to be trainz kinda days, as long as the power stays on or my laptop last till it comes back!!! lol I'm hoping for the best.:confused::)
 
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