Driverless heavy haul ore trains to run at the end of 2018

Hi everybody.
The two main aircraft manufacturers, Boeing-McDonald-Douglas and Airbus, have taken very different approaches to this. Essentially, with Boeing the pilot is still in command but the computer is the supervisor while with Airbus the computer is in command with the pilot as a supervisor. Both approaches have been shown to have their advantages and disadvantages - and the latter can be with fatal consequences.

Pware, you have very much hit the core of the role of artificial intelligence in transport debate with your above example and statement. As we have witnessed throughout the world and in particular here in Europe in recent months, almost any powered vehicle can be used as a weapon to terrible effect or human error can create an unwanted man made catastrophe. In either of the foregoing the larger the vehicle the more devastating can be the outcome.

Anyone who has seen the film "Sully" in which the flight crew make an emergency landing in New York's Hudson River after US Airways Flight 1549 strikes a flock of geese will perhaps relies that no computer could have carried out what those pilots did. The flight crew had less than two minutes but in that time they evaluate the situation, throw the flight plan and aircraft manual "out the window" and then land on the river saving​ all on board.

Of course there is the opposite side as was so terribly witnessed on 9/11 when aircraft in total human control were used to such catostrofic affect. Aircraft thankfully have become much more difficult to commandeer in recent times. However, other vehicles have now become weapons for terror attacks and as ever susceptible to a genuine human error also causing any number of incidents.

Certainly in the European road haulage industry the thinking is with artificial intelligence as the way forward in terms of safety but we have a long way to go in terms of needing changes to legislation. There is also the matter of the large number of small haulers that give such great service but would not survive the radical changes that such legislation will bring about. The large UK and European rail industries are also now coming face to face with the many dilemmas that artificial intelligence will bring to that system of transport and the changes that will be needed to accommodate such systems.

Driverless vehicles especially in regard to road will i feel change the way we all think in terms of travel and also in regards to work availability and what we engage in while carrying out that employment.

Bill
 
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Driverless vehicles especially in regard to road will i feel change the way we all think in terms of travel and also in regards to work availability and what we engage in while carrying out that employment.

Bill
I agree. I think fully autonomous vehicles of all kind will come eventually, Bill, whether any of us likes it or not. My worry is what will happen to the people who can no longer find employment in our computerised, automatic world. Are we going to be paid to stay at home? I doubt that very much, certainly not on a survivable income anyway.

Cheers

Dave
 
Are we going to be paid to stay at home? I doubt that very much, certainly not on a survivable income anyway.

Which brings up the need to reevaluate our entire economic system. One proposal that is being seriously looked at, and even trialed in various parts of the world, is the concept of a "living wage". If farmers can be paid to not plant a crop then perhaps people can be paid a living wage to "stay at home" and pursue other interests such as hobbies (Trainz comes quickly to mind), volunteer work, creative activities, etc. If they have skills that are in demand then they can even work at a job for additional income.
 
I agree. I think fully autonomous vehicles of all kind will come eventually, Bill, whether any of us likes it or not. My worry is what will happen to the people who can no longer find employment in our computerised, automatic world. Are we going to be paid to stay at home? I doubt that very much, certainly not on a survivable income anyway.

Cheers

Dave

By way of one example, I do occasional work in a factory owned by a large multi-national. They brought in 5 robots which made 15 men redundant. Sounds like good progress as long as the bottom line goes up.
 
In the foregoing it could well be that when the line fully opens in 2019 that MTR who will operate those trains will insist on true driverless operation. That without doubt will bring about a backlash from the existing drivers throughout the London Underground and " battle royal" will commence.

And possibly a 'backlash' from 'existing' passengers who may not wish to be on a train, 60-70 ft below ground in subsurface tunnels with no 'capable guardian' on the train whatsoever.

Paul
 
I would have to agree with those in this thread that express concearn in regards to employment availability in the in the coming years. It is difficult to look around the Transport industry and not identify many thousands of jobs that will be taken over by AI in the not so distant future. The foregoing is especially prevelent in the road transport where warehouse distribution employment is already being transformed by robotic pickers etc with the employment numbers required already falling.

However, here in the UK we seem unable to take up new employment opportunities even when they are presented due to lack of skills training in our education sector. If I give my own sub sector (industrial safety) as an example, it is virtually impossible to find personel with qualifications in electronics, engineering and the sciences that the sector so desperately requires. It is especially prevelent for companies such as ours that we find persons with "shop floor experience" in the foregoing before we train them on in using those skills in an industrial safety environment. Even finding legal Secretaries whose high skills underpin everything the rest us do can be a "desperate quest" in these times.

In the above it would seem that our education system turns out many that have degrees and A level qualifications in media and arts but few in the skills the country in reality really requires. In the huge aerospace industry consentrated in North Bristol BAE Systems and Rolls Royce were both stating that the above skills shortages were seriously impacting on there production capabilities in the last weeks. The new GWR train servicing centre due to open in North Bristol shortly is also finding it difficult to recruit the skilled service engineer's they require if they are to fully ramp operations up on schedule.

On a lighter note, it is now not uncommon to write a risk assessment for a robotic operation these days. I have often wondered while writing such if any of those robots ever read them.

Bill
 
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In the above it would seem that our education system turns out many that have degrees and A level qualifications in media and arts but few in the skills the country in reality really requires.

As a former Science and then Information Technology teacher, I can attest to the drift away from "technical skills" training. Parents and students now often see little value in technical education partly because of the belief that automation will make such jobs redundant. Today if any consumer technology product breaks down it is far cheaper to throw it away and buy a new one. In industry the role of a technician is often simply to replace and throw away any faulty circuit boards or components - repair is not time or cost efficient.

The courses that are in demand here are in the humanities and the arts - too many parents hold the view, often against all reality, that "little Johnny" or "little Mary" will be going into law or medicine because that's where the "real money" and job security are to be found. Paradoxically, those professions are ripe for automation because of the high costs (i.e. salaries) of doctors and lawyers.

I have always believed that the logical conclusion to automation is a world of fully automated factories and offices providing all possible goods and services that no-one can afford to buy because no-one has a job. In reality, I think we will see a social revolution, or worse a violent backlash, that will start at the grass-roots. The rise of the "anti-globalisation" and "protectionist" movements worldwide (Brexit in the UK, Trump in the US, "lunatic fringe" parties here in Oz and elsewhere) may be the start of this revolution.
 
>In industry the role of a technician is often simply to replace and throw away any faulty circuit boards or components - repair is not time or cost efficient.

Well yes but you still need someone to spot which bit needs to be replaced.

The humanities are cheap to teach, and because they aren't hard facts, ie mix these two chemicals together now did it go bang? It's easy to give credit for an opinion. 41% of UK university students now get a first class honours at some universities. With roughly 50% of students going to University this compares to what 5% forty years ago and of those 7% or less than 1% of the population of that age group would get a first class honours.

I don't know what the answer is. I do know the more specialised you are the more difficult to get a job can be. You choose a subject a year before going to University and hope that in four years time that subject will be in demand. Until recently people who studied geology would be snapped up by the oil industry. Today many have been laid off with ten or more years experience.

Cheerio John
 
...In the above it would seem that our education system turns out many that have degrees and A level qualifications in media and arts but few in the skills the country in reality really requires...

Bill
Again, I fully agree but I think it's very much a reflection of the deluded televison and Facebook dominated times we live in. The "X Factor" and so called "Reality" programmes that are about as far removed from reality as you can get and which are filled with poorly behaved Z listed "stars" that most people have never even heard of. Unfortunately, this has left us with a generation where so many young people have these ridiculous dreams of being "a star" of some sort and they have no concept of the reality of life.

I know that in Britain the idea that kids should have to stay on at school until they're 18 was just a callous way to cut the unemployment figures and the amount of benefits being paid out by the state. The trouble is, most of these kids being kept in school really don't want to be there and rightly see themselves as young adults who are capable of thinking for themselves. The subjects on offer to them are often ridulous media or social sciences based options that most have no interest in. That inevitably turns them into rebels without a cause (with record numbers now being excluded or expelled) and enforces their belief that society has no interest in them. They then in turn fail to grasp the idea of self discipline, lounging around doing little or nothing while somebody else picks up the bill, and they think everyone is picking on them. The idea of full automation then confirms their worst fears completely. Future? What future?

Sadly, many parents in the Western World have made life too easy for the younger ones too. Anything they ask for they get. If something breaks they throw it away and get a new one. You tell them tales about how you only got an apple or an orange for Christmas when YOU were a kid and they look at you like you just spoke to them in Latin or something.

Yes, automation is coming but, for the sake of our children and grandchildren, we need to, as pware said earlier, completely re-evaluate our whole economic system and our outlook on what is and isn't important to us as a species. The current system of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer can only have disasterous results at some future point. Let's give our kids hope. Give them a proper education in the skills that matter - including life skills. Too often these days people look around for someone else to blame when things go wrong instead of taking it on the chin, dusting themselves down and going again. When WE were young we were always taught that you get nothing without hard work. We need to teach our kids those values too and then teach them how to put things right.

Cheers

Dave
 
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>When WE were young we were always taught that you get nothing without hard work.

I think its a different age these days. ITIL and ISO 9000 have brought better quality and lowered costs but at the same time have reduced the need for people. Walmart has lowered prices for many people but at the expense of many retail jobs. Subway franchises are more popular that local cafes but have deskilled the work in many ways.

I think we need to accept the idea that fewer people will have a job in the future whether they are prepared to work hard or not. I've seen someone come up with an idea that saved the organisation a few million dollars but they were the sort of person that reflected rather than worked ten hours a day so its difficult to know what to value. Should we look for solutions that would look after all members of society at a lower total cost as Australia does with health care or should what is the most profitable for business guide us?

and there we are getting into politics so it had better be left where it is.

Cheerio John
 
Walmart has lowered prices for many people but at the expense of many retail jobs.

I would like to say a few things:
1. I got my job with the help of a thing called Project SEARCH. It's a program by a local group called Cross Plains Community Partnership. This group partners with local businesses (in this case, the local hospital and Shaw Industries, which is the biggest manufacturer of textiles in, at least America) to provide internships for people with disabilities to find jobs. I was part of a group of four 'Guinea Pigs' for the Shaw program, as we were the first group to be in the Shaw program. It was lasted nine months, Monday to Friday, 7:00AM-3:30PM, same hours as going to school. We got paid during our internship, and were provided transportation if no one could get us from home to our workplace, or vice versa, in my case, it was from work to home. I just wish that there was more of these programs out there, as it would help a younger generation find jobs instead of sitting at home on their behinds all the time.

2. There's two things about Wal-Mart I've learned: 1. You can find all the things you need on a daily basis there (as long as it's family-friendly (well, except for the video games, movies and TV shows you can buy in the Electronics area, as some of them are not appropriate for younger children)). 2. I don't know if anyone else has this problem, but my family has the problem of going to Wal-Mart and as soon as we pull into the driveway at our house, we remember something we forgot to get there.
 
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...I don't know if anyone else has this problem, but my family has the problem of going to Wal-Mart and as soon as we pull into the driveway at our house, we remember something we forgot to get there.
:hehe: I wish I got paid for how many times that's happened to me here in the UK ha ha! Now, if only there was a way to automate someway of putting that situation right... ;)

Cheers

Dave
 
Instead of investing and wasting money into the development of driver-less passenger and freight trains in Australia, it would be more advantageous to set a target of electrifying the whole nations rail network by the year of 2050.
Replace all diesel powered locomotives with an electric system, so that we can help to reduce world air pollution.
Still prefer a human train driver with the "dead man's switch button" active as a fail safe measure.
 
Replace all diesel powered locomotives with an electric system, so that we can help to reduce world air pollution.

That very much depends on how the electricity is generated. Here in Oz we are now starting to close old coal burning power stations and are not building new ones - although some politicians still believe in "clean coal", an oxymoron in my opinion. One state just closed a 60 year old power station that provided about 25% of that states power and 5% of the nations power by burning brown coal and was regarded as the worlds dirtiest and most polluting power station. So that was a win for the environment but some are predicting blackouts and power shortages as a result.

Nuclear power is not an option here, despite the claims of those same politicians, and while hydro is used it is not really suitable in one of the driest and flattest continents on Earth. We have no geothermal or tidal options to speak of so that really only leaves solar, which we have an over-abundance of for about half of each day (but that not the time when you want it) and wind (usually provided in abundance but erratically by politicians). We do have a huge supply of natural gas but nearly all of that is exported to Asia at inflated prices.

Over the last decade the electricity suppliers have dramatically increased the prices they charge everyone, especially the rail operators, with the result that electric locos have been scrapped and the electric rail network is being wound back in some states. Diesel is far cheaper and more flexible for rail than electric power, even ignoring the infrastructure costs.

Still prefer a human train driver with the "dead man's switch button" active as a fail safe measure.

For the time being, I cannot argue over that but there has been one major fatal rail accident here where the driver "circumvented" that safety device (a common practice at that time) and then suffered a heart attack. But eventually, humans will be shown to be far less reliable and more error-prone that automated systems.
 
For the time being, I cannot argue over that but there has been one major fatal rail accident here where the driver "circumvented" that safety device (a common practice at that time) and then suffered a heart attack. But eventually, humans will be shown to be far less reliable and more error-prone that automated systems.

I do recall a TV show that featured a head-on collision with a VIA Rail passenger train and a Canadian National freight train in Canada. The crew of the freight train was at fault as the engineer had placed his lunchbox on the 'dead man's pedal', thereby circumventing the safety switch and then both the engineer and fireman (the train was diesel-powered) fell asleep. The conductor was in the caboose at the end of the train and also fell asleep, but was awaken by the collision. All three crewmembers of the freight train was experiencing sleep deprivation. The freight train was supposed to wait on a passing siding to let the VIA Rail passenger train pass by it, but ran thru the siding and back onto the single-track mainline. Both the engineer and fireman of the freight train died in the accident, the conductor of the freight train survived. This accident resulted in changes in how many hours crews were on and off the job, and the replacement of the 'dead man's pedal' with the 'alerter button'. This button is designed where at regular intervals it would start making a buzzing sound and the engineer had a certain amount of time to push the button, resetting the alarm. If he doesn't, the brakes automatically apply and bring the train to a stop. This has become a standard feature of locomotives manufactured today.
 
I would very much agree with all that is written in the posting by pware at #35 of this thread as much that is stated in regard to energy production is similar to the problems faced here in the UK. However, great emphasis has been placed in Britain on the generation of renewable electricity which is now having growing Input into overall energy production which has allowed for the planned closure of all coal fired power stations.

In the above the government has recently announced further plans for homeowners to gain a good incentive for solar power generated by them and fed into the national grid system for which those homeowners producing the power will be paid. Wind power generation is also now on a large scale, but tidal and hydro generation is seemingly going forward a much slower rate.

There is still a substantial way to go with all the above in regard to meeting the UK's winter power needs to any significant degree, but for summer requirements renewables are now playing a large and growing role in meeting all that is required.

Britain has now after much argument began the building of what will be the largest nuclear power station in Europe (Hinkley point). That stated, I am not to much in favour of that project as it is only approximately twelve miles from my home on the Bristol Channel coast “as the crow flies”. Another Chernobyl type incident will undoubtedly see us all glowing in the dark on this section of the coast (LOL).

In regard to autonomous vehicles, the trials of driverless heavy trucks which my company has been involved in by way of working alongside the UK Health & Safety Executive have gone very well. Without doubt the technology is most definitely there to have such vehicles operating commercially on roads in the not too distant future. Discussion within the HSE is centering on that within the next ten to twelve years a debate will arise as to whether human beings should be allowed to control vehicles while they are moving at all?

Bill
 
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